Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 7.713821 9.114392 10.657578 12.478656 14.563235 16.869080 19.606679
2025-02-02 5.855955 7.721802 9.971661 12.861738 16.450667 20.734147 26.203820
2025-02-09 4.758499 6.875749 9.625043 13.405376 18.409178 24.739841 33.278531
2025-02-16 3.811535 5.979412 8.985665 13.371380 19.501340 27.645227 39.137407
2025-02-23 3.011415 5.103759 8.187842 12.936698 19.906410 29.574447 43.765719
2025-03-02 2.385249 4.352141 7.423203 12.395101 20.025360 31.029932 47.760535
2025-03-09 2.015829 3.930142 7.076031 12.397490 20.885119 33.539568 53.357637
2025-03-16 1.728216 3.588312 6.795725 12.446568 21.783479 36.129569 59.203596
2025-03-23 1.480664 3.269256 6.500211 12.418014 22.527388 38.503616 64.842219
2025-03-30 1.211315 2.855435 5.974587 11.923220 22.439643 39.542439 68.451231
2025-04-06 1.049990 2.624896 5.745709 11.912411 23.143716 41.865263 74.192449
2025-04-13 0.905971 2.401860 5.496690 11.828137 23.697038 43.956196 79.658385
2025-04-20 0.851018 2.370929 5.631025 12.495263 25.671461 48.601127 89.682200
2025-04-27 0.786105 2.304868 5.684789 13.011477 27.413730 52.964728 99.497843
2025-05-04 0.733697 2.258845 5.773612 13.603705 29.340277 57.761136 110.307392
2025-05-11 0.641885 2.092884 5.575583 13.582716 30.088182 60.508532 117.719156
2025-05-18 0.536513 1.865584 5.202941 13.146154 29.977709 61.686327 122.422464
2025-05-25 0.441594 1.642758 4.803512 12.598176 29.584126 62.298277 126.121598
2025-06-01 0.389007 1.531935 4.659295 12.600980 30.308713 65.030952 133.785234
2025-06-08 0.345269 1.437664 4.542166 12.650874 31.130482 67.988000 141.999433
2025-06-15 0.303767 1.339626 4.399427 12.621952 31.776152 70.632660 149.750011
2025-06-22 0.250862 1.185999 4.079076 12.120122 31.340405 71.111206 153.408976
2025-06-29 0.221397 1.108959 3.961217 12.109162 31.993983 73.798730 161.427815